The "Metaverse" and the Future

I’ve been thinking a lot about the future recently. #

Facebook’s recent annoucement of its changing focus to the “metaverse”, reflected in the parent company’s name change to Meta, leads me personally to feel just a touch of existential angst. I think about certain folks who were born in the 1890’s, who were still broadly using horses as their exclusive means of transport in their childhood, and by the end of their lives saw man’s first steps on the moon on television. To zoom out to this scope and ponder the implications for 90s kids like me is monumental, ego-killing, and a little scary. Though at this point the concept of a “metaverse” rests pretty squarely in the goofy hands of one of the top 3 most memeable humans I know of, I would wager that The Zucc’s vision for the future is at least in agreement with the general direction of history, certainly the history that I have personally witnessed. There are numerous hot takes I’ve consumed that take one of two fairly distinct stances on the subject: either the concept of a “metaverse” is not new and has never worked before so it won’t work now and is therefore bad, or the “metaverse” is probably fun and cool and good and probably will be safe and helpful and profitable probably - however, the number of articles you’ll find upon googling the word “metaverse” that have one of these theses is vastly outnumbered by a third type of article that has a title that sounds something like, “7 reasons you should invest in the metaverse! #3 has doctors reeling!” This fact lends weight to my personal take on the future of the metaverse:

It’s likely that some form of the metaverse is coming, because 1. that’s where money is going, and 2. it can theoretically solve many of the problems that modern people care most deeply about. #

I’m doubtful that it will be the exclusive work of Facebook’s (Meta’s, sorry) hands, but I find it very likely that some variation on the idea of a metaverse will come to fruition and find mainstream success. There are a few moderately successful metaverse “prototypes”, such as Second Life and VRChat, which I also think have the capability of establishing a fully-realized vision of the metaverse (and with less legwork!), but Meta’s ubiquity, mountains of cash money, giant work force, and the fact that they own Oculus all contribute to a unique capability to see ‘ol Zuck’s vision to completion as well. To explain this opinion, let’s do some exhuming.

Think for a moment about the cartoon The Jetsons. If you’re not familiar with the show itself, you’re certainly familiar with its raison d’etre; Hi, it’s the 60s and the space race is going on so here’s a family sitcom cartoon that is set in the future, complete with googie architechture and flying cars and food pills, all out in space! There’s a couple things the show wasn’t so far off on, but we can confidently say that the majority of the postulations that The Jetsons and other media of its ilk made were pretty short-sighted, and were mostly a reflection of their times, serving as fuctional caricatures of the moment they existed in - their “future” looked an awful lot like their present. Then the 70s and 80s came along and began building what was to become the internet, which, over the course of 30-40 years, entered the mainstream and changed everything. Of course, something like the modern internet would’ve been unfathomable as a deciding factor in the path of the future in the 60s; you might argue that very very few people saw the power of the internet before it became broadly accessable in the early-mid 90s. No, the people of the Jetsons’ era looked at the present to determine the future, as man is wont to do - we’re concerned about the world’s ability to feed a growing population, so we have food pills to accomodate. We see massive planes shoot into space - it’s only a matter of time before our cars follow suit. We’ve just been introduced to the idea of robots and how they can be made to do things unpleasant or unsafe for us - it’s only logical that we’ll invite them into our homes so they can plunge our toilets for us. But we didn’t end up pursuing a lot of these things, not because technology hasn’t kept up or due to a lack of ambition, but for a bunch of mundane reasons: being hard to teach or regulate, or plain impracticality, or even the overestimation of the altruism of a “futuristic” society. You’ll notice, however, these mundane reasons that stopped us from fulfilling these futuristic fantasies happen to apply equally or moreso to the most historically important thing that has appeared in pretty much any potential reader’s lifetime, and which I’ve already made reference to: the internet. For all its impracticality, and impossibility to regulate, and potential to empower, encourage, and engage the darkest parts of our psyche, it has yet been, debatably, one of the most important and influential inventions of the last century, maybe longer. So the question, then, is this: what is responsible for the flourishing of the internet and the languishing of the flying car, and further, the direction of history in general? 1 little word: MONEY.

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

–Ben Franklin

I’m under no impression that this is, y’know, rocket science, or even that it’s a particularly novel idea, but I think pieces of media like The Jetsons, CyberPunk 2077, Ender’s Game, Black Mirror, Eureka, Futurama, and a million other examples are proof that this isn’t the way, broadly, that people think about the future. It seems to be that we’re more tempted to let the hazy mirror of the lexicon of pop culture - existing media and popular scientists, pundits, and talking heads - tell us what the future will be like. _{(It also seems that we really really dig the idea of a dystopian, apocalyptic type of future scenario, which is a morbidly fascinating topic for another day. )} As I have alluded to already, history tends to demonstrate more of a proclivity toward leaning into the outcomes which are most profitable for the high castes of society, because those profits allow the powerful to remain powerful, generally speaking. We can trace this all the way back to mankind’s transition from the hunter-gatherer lifestyle to an agricultural one, when a few prudent proto-humans realized that by cultivating grain and converting that grain to beer, they could exert control over their fellow neanderthals by becoming the gatekeepers of pleasure. You can obviously trace this sort of activity through history, through the rising and falling of kingdoms, and specifically, through how technology develops to enable and catalyze profitability and therefore expansion of and control over the populace. A few historical examples - the development of the wheel by the ancient Sumerians not only allowed for the building of chariots to give soldiers a competetive edge in combat for expanding and defending territory, but also enabled faster transport, easier and more efficient farming, and the development of derivative technologies, such as the windmill - all of which serve to empower the Sumerian leaders to expand and subjugate more effectively. Jumping forward a few thousand years, consider the layered benefit to the powers that be of flying technology - it was practially moments after the Wright brothers’ fateful 12 seconds of powered flight on December 17, 1903 that the muckamucks of the world concieved of its applications for industry, war, travel, and luxury. In both these circumstances, the develoment of technology and the course of history broadly was decidedly NOT driven by idealizing, or reflecting, or the reduction of burden, or the improvement or prolongment of existing trends, or social equity, or world peace, or altruism, or the good of mankind, but instead by keeping the strong, strong, and the rich, rich, and the poor and weak, poor and weak. You may detect some cynicism here; that is intended, but it must also be remembered that the cynical lens is a fisheye, missing details in the periphery. In spite of the fact that power and profit are the true drivers, and the regularity of these developments having consequences for the little man, there has paradoxically been a lot of positive collateral damage which has served to benefit the whole of mankind. This must be remembered alongside the frequency with which the actions of the highest up have had big consequences for the highest up, which may not be as regular as would seem fair to you or me, but is not insignificant. I tend to think that it’s important to temper big, yucky worldviews like this one by viewing them through a wholistic, optimistic, realistic lens (this should probably also apply vice-versa as well) in order to maintain sanity.

Back to the topic and my second point, the other thing I see propelling us into a “Metaverse Future™” is the fact that the metaverse would be able to functionally abstract away all the social and presentational disconnects and inequities that our flesh imposes upon us, solving a number of pointedly relevant problems. Keeping in mind that this idea is predicated upon the assumption that accessing the metaverse could be something so broadly possible across humanity as to be practically universal, which would certainly be a deciding factor as to the veracity of this hypothetical future… Think for a moment about a game you’ve played where you get to create some sort of character or avatar. Elder Scrolls, or a Mii, or Dark Souls, or Sims, or Soul Calibur, whatever you like. Consider this: what if this avatar was the principal way you manifested socially? Put more clearly, what would it mean for humanity if the primary way we interacted with and presented ourselves to our peers, our workplaces, businesses, and even ourselves was something we had absolute control over? What if we were able to choose exactly what people see and hear when they perceive us? In a metaverse-dominant world, this is not just possible, but also easy, quick, painless, and with the right level of determination and creativity, both free and potentially profitable. There’s certainly a deeply limited degree to which this is possible outside the metaverse context (in other words, in reality), but certainly NOT in a way that is easy, quick, painless, or free (2 of the few options that come to mind, tattoos and plastic surgery, are none of these). But even now, your various Robloxes and Fortnites have already realized a version of this reality (often to comedic effect), but what they have accomplished so far is but an anemic shadow of the vision proposed by Meta. Their vision places the metaverse as the primary way we will interact with our world, encompassing entertainment, education, socializing, commerce, sex, and everything else (they may not publicly assent to ALL these categories, but rest assured a future where entertainment and socializing are mainly virtual will certainly include metaverse-flavored sex (SFW) as well). This means that, in each moment, all will have the freedom to present themselves to the world however they wish. If I wake up today and I want to be percieved as a handsome, tall man with a full head of hair, abs, and a designer wardrobe, that possibility is now available, regardless of any incongruence that may exist between that image and my physical manifestation. Because the metaverse is the means through which I am primarily percieved by the world, the reality of my biological body is rendered almost completely meaningless. Heck, I could choose to present as a bengal tiger with 3 legs and 10 eyes and Spongebob’s voice and purple hotdogs for teeth if the mood struck me, and the hobbling hotdog tiger is now more meaningfully “me” than the goober behind the VR goggles. “Who you are” is finally able to be completely divorced from the physical realities of your body, like race, or sex, or height, or weight, or hair length, or even species. This addresses both issues of disconnect/dissociation/discontent with one’s physical body, and all discrimination based upon the appearance of one’s physical body. Further, the visionaries and creatives among us will have equal access to a new market in which we can vend yet-unheard-of products and services - Think avatar designing, virtual clothing and accessories, creating, maintaining, or even serving virtual gathering areas, doing moderating and administrative work, engaging with the uncharted territory of helping corporate entities interact with and exist within the metaverse, and meeting needs we can’t even concieve of yet. In the metaverse, social inequities are demolished and everyone is placed on equal ground! Power is wrested from the bourgeoisie’s wretched claws and the proletariat toils in darkness no longer - truly, the metaverse is the land of milk and honey!

Unfortunately, Ideas != Reality #

You don’t need a doctorate in philosophy to concieve of the planetary-scale caveat here: the ideas in the above paragraph are about as hyper-idealized as they could possibly be. Scrutizing that vision for more than 2 seconds reveals just how many holes are in this swiss cheese. Consider, for example, the whole new universe of new, as-of-yet-undiscovered types of discrimination and tribalism that arise from absolute freedom to present however one pleases. The hotdog tiger folks take issue with tall handsome man folks - “Sorry, this social space only welcomes non-humanoid avatars. The social space for your kind is the next subnet over.” Here in Flesh World, the idealogical equivalent would be segregation! Remember, your avatar is you; discrimination based on one’s personal-truth-based self-representation is idealogically identical to any other discrimination. Let’s try solving this problem. Assuming it would even be possible to regulate in any way, (which, they’ve hardly been able to regulate a 2-dimensional internet so far, so, doubtful) you really only have 2 options. First, you could continually try to take away these means to discriminate, which both reduces functionality and freedom within the metaverse, and is also a wild goose chase that would be completely incapable of keeping up with creative discriminators that find new ways to exercise prejudice every hour. The other option would be to limit freedom for avatar building, which has three massive problems: it completely eliminates the metaverse’s promise to perfect self-expression, it drastically reduces the potential for commerce to happen in the form of the vendors that would produce new avatars and associated accoutrements, and most importantly, it flat-out doesn’t solve the problem (see the episode of the Fairly OddParents where Timmy makes a wish that turns everyone into grey blobs and certain blobs claim superiority on the basis of being “the grayest and the blobbiest”). The other main problem I immediately think of is that all the benefits the metaverse promises are limited by precisely the same factors that limit mankind in every way outside the metaverse: education, money, and class. Those in rural areas or in poverty won’t be able to access the metaverse, either because they don’t have internet access or can’t afford the VR apparatus. Even if those factors are eliminated somehow (Starlink allowing universal internet access and Meta performing a military coup and mandating an Oculus Quest into every household are among the potential solutions), the metaverse is not so promising for those without the money or connection to participate in entertainment or purchase avatars that they feel represent them well, or the education or tech literacy to build avatars that represent them well or monetize their platform by producing purchasable or paywalled content. As these big historical technological leaps have tended to go, the monkeys on mankind’s back keep a tight grip through every tectonic shift that promises to avail man of his ills. Lo, the metaverse makes good on a resounding zero of its promises. Go figure.

But an exciting idea is much more interesting and beguiling than boring dumb sad reality. #

What’s fun and cool about all this is how easy it is to be sold on something new and life-changing without considering the downsides and the compromises and the collateral damage and those that will be left behind, proportionally more so as the juiciness of the idea being hawked increases. Meta’s shareholders are happy to hear the second-to-last paragraph there and then cover their ears and go “la la laaaa, I’m not listeninggg” when they encounter the last paragraph. This is why I make the argument that the philosophy undergirding those ideas is a principal reason that the metaverse could well be a part of our futures. It falls apart immediately under scrutiny, but it’s awful cute while you’re squinting at it on the horizon.

So what’s the net effect of this postulation on our future? What’s the implications? #

Probably not much, regardless of whether or not I’m right. Young people will adapt quickly to changes, though some will have a hard time ignoring the superficiality of the 10000 layers of abstraction between them and their friends, and will think themselves very hip and unique for hanging out mostly in person. People my age will rant and rave about how everything is worse now and how much we miss the early days of the internet, and continue to circulate memes that reference The Office even though the show ended in 2013. Older folks will flatly refuse to learn or participate in new technology and instead rely on their grandkids to help them log into their virtual Canasta group. Businesses will continue to concieve of new ways to commodify our data and invade our privacy so they can sell us gimmicky t-shirts and Double McCheeseburgers and subscription services. Again with the cynicism, right… but I do think an awareness and acknowledgement of how things are gives us the best chance to not be taken advantage of or beaten by it. Although history is certainly doomed to repeat itself, we do have the freedom as individuals to determine to what extent we swallow society’s prescriptions for us, to assign value to things by our own metrics, and to choose our level of involvement and the values by which we live our lives. That’s something that gives me hope, at least.

Thank you for reading this whole thing.

Comment with your small business idea for the metaverse.